Rona No More: Summary

Are we really still in a pandemic?

Excess deaths from Covid are dropping to zero in most places.

This means that the global pandemic has come and gone.

We need to declare its end in order to restore our society.

“There are 200,000 dead Americans and it’s all Trump’s fault.”

That simple statement fits this time of dystopia so well, a searing combination of blame, shame, and ill will directed at a political enemy.

However, it has two flaws that fatally undercut its utility as a description of reality and a guide to what might come next.

First, the US is a federation and it has been clear from day one of this pandemic that state and local governments are leading the response, with federal agencies providing the backup.

Second, there is little point in tracking mortality in an additive way, since the virus is not linear but instead follows a bell curve, up and then down.

On that basis, it is notable that today’s US mortality count is down almost four-fold from the April peak and is at or below normal levels compared to the past five years.

So, how would we know when to call an end to the pandemic, given that the concept of a pandemic itself is so loose?

The WHO and CDC provide one official definition: a pandemic is a worldwide simultaneous epidemic, and an epidemic, in turn, is a widespread disease resulting in abnormally high deaths.

Right now, there is official silence from the CDC regarding the end of the pandemic.

That is somewhat disconcerting, since flu and pneumonia deaths peaked in April and have since moved below the typical epidemic threshold rates as of the end of September.

Sticking to their methodology, the end of the US pandemic should therefore rightfully be declared now.

This emphasis on abnormally high deaths as a definition of epidemic and pandemic can also be examined in a number of other countries.

As of early October, almost every one of the 210 countries and territories with Covid data had already seen their pandemic peak-and-decline, or never had one in the first place.

The only exceptions, in order of declining severity, are Argentina, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Poland, Myanmar, Czechia, and Hungary, all of which are seeing rapid rises in deaths to a new peak.

The only conclusion to reach is that the pandemic is over for most places on earth. This does not mean zero deaths going forward or an end to contagion, but it is consistent with declaring the end of this health emergency. Deaths below average rates do not make a pandemic.

And yet, restrictive government policies are continuing to live (and thrive) in a bygone world of great perceived danger, while nature has moved on to a post-pandemic environment for almost every country.

This is lazy rear view policymaking, looking back to the recent exponential contagion of March as the easiest-to-grasp model for what might soon take place.

It compounds the lethargic policy mistakes of January and February, when politicians failed to take Covid seriously enough, and the overkill policy of total lockdown in March, with a myopic inability to discern that the pandemic has now come and gone.

We know that we cannot have zero deaths from viral contagions, as every annual flu season proves in spades, and yet our political leaders are now committed to eradicating or suppressing Covid as a disease.

This hubristic “every life must be saved” approach guarantees that we will have a Neverendemic, forever hiding in fear of a disease that is a creature of the natural world we inhabit.

As the preferred alternative, our leaders, and our fellow citizens, need to carefully consider the evidence that the pandemic has come and gone, and with it the abnormal risk of death.

By declaring its termination, and the resumption of a normal public health situation, we will have the best shot at ending this social crisis and returning to our former lives.

A cry of “Rona No More” is the first necessary step in restoring our society and, ultimately, our sanity.

The full article can be found here.