Where’s the Rona? — Summary

The coronavirus is not only not everywhere, it is hardly anywhere

Our effort to control the coronavirus is based on a deep belief that we can tame nature.

Our fear of the coronavirus is based on a deep belief that the pathogen may be everywhere.

Neither belief is true, so we must change our minds in order to end this social crisis.

What does it take to believe that we can control a viral pandemic?

The starting point must be the idea that people can tame nature.

Our presumed control over nature is the source for the widespread belief that many of the government policies already instigated — from lockdowns and other contact restrictions to the use of masks and sanitizers — have been wildly successful.

And yet, it seems that we may be inflating our role in this very natural process.

There is little evidence, aside from selectively chosen anecdotes that can easily be refuted by other examples, that anything beyond basic hygienic practices and simple physical distancing have altered the course of the pandemic — and even those measures are not really proven.

So, if a belief in our near omnipotence is a prerequisite for expecting viral control, what is the deep-seated but unspoken assumption behind our belief in the very existence of the viral threat?

After all, we cannot see, smell, taste, or touch the coronavirus.

That mental disconnect leads us to the true underlying assumption about our belief in the coronavirus: we assume it exists as a profound threat because we believe that it may be everywhere.

In essence, we throw every bit of rational probabilistic thinking out the window and opt for a one-dimensional magical theory that the threat is actually all around us. We don’t know and we can’t know, so we assume it is here, there, and everywhere.

More supple minds might ask: is this a proper view of reality?

Just because something could be somewhere, does it make it likely or even possible that it actually is there?

I prefer to look at the issue practically, and so I went and cracked some numbers to understand the prevalence of the coronavirus.

First, I wanted to understand the playing field, where it was possible for the virus to exist.

Using my home Vancouver as an example, I calculated the indoor and outdoor spaces of the city, the only areas where the virus is likely to lurk. That gives us a bit under 100 billion cubic feet of total indoor and outdoor potential viral space.

Next, I calculated the storage space in the primary resting place for the virus: our lungs. The number is around 80 million cubic feet (mcf) for all the people of Vancouver.

Of course, the degree of viral transmission is actually set not by the storage volume in our bodies, but rather by the flow of potential viral transmission through our breathing, the number one transmission vector.

Accordingly, I estimate that there is at most about 40 mcf of virus-infested breathing in Vancouver over the course of a month.

Comparing this viral transmission volume with the total indoor and outdoor space, we see that it is but four hundredths of one percentage point. The virus is most certainly not everywhere.

Of course, in order for contagion to take place, someone else needs to intercept that viral breathing in close proximity and with a sufficient enough dose.

This takes the existence of the virus down from four hundredths of one percent of the potential viral space to at most four hundred-thousandths of one percent of what we can call the active potential space.

At that level of possible exposure, it is fair to say that the virus is not only not everywhere, it is for all practical purposes hardly anywhere.

The arguments and calculations set out above point to our minds as the thing that must change in order to end this social crisis.

This social crisis can only be ended by coming to terms with our mental failings. We will not solve the problem with social engineering or biotechnology. It is not a public health issue.

The proper question is not “Where’s the Rona?”

The real question is “Where’s the Wisdom?”

The full article can be found here.